The
Road to Paris
The
first, second, fourth and fifth largest emitters[1] of
the world have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
(INDC) or in other words, their climate change action plan to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in run up to the Paris Climate
Change Summit.
The
EU has committed to cut its emissions by 40%, compared with 1990 levels, by
2030. The US will cut its emissions by 26% to 28%, compared with 2005 levels,
by 2025. China has agreed to peak its emissions by 2030.
China
ignited hopes globally that a sustainable future need not remain a pipe dream. China
submitted a very ambitious, yet achievable emissions-reduction goal. The
Chinese government has set a target of peaking its carbon dioxide emissions by
2030 or earlier, reduce carbon intensity by 60-65% relative to 2005 levels,
increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 20% and
increase forest cover by 4.5 billion cubic metres relative to 2005 levels. Japan,
the fifth largest emitter, has also set an ambitious target for renewable
energy at 22 to 24% of the mix, liquefied natural gas at 27% and coal at 26%.
All
eyes are now set on the third largest (and soon to be the second biggest)
emitter of the world – India.
The
Indian government’s position on climate change has been paradoxical. While the
Union Minster of Environment, Forests and Climate Change has made stern remarks
that India will not follow a low carbon growth path and that developed economies
must cut emissions to compensate for the historical error, the Prime Minister has
set an ambitious target of 175 GW renewable energy capacity (over 20% in the
total energy mix) by 2022. This target, by all liberal estimates, appears
extremely ambitious. While India may take a righteous ‘emit now and pay later’
position, it is not in the country’s interest to walk a carbon-intense growth path
especially because of its own vulnerabilities. There are reasons beyond economy
and sustainability for why India must commit to a strong emission cut plan
ahead of the Paris Summit.
1. India’s trapped
thermal deposits
India
is the fourth largest producer and the second biggest consumer of coal. India’s
large coal deposits are trapped under its forest land. Exploring this untapped
energy would not only mean additional emissions but massive deforestation and
subsequent marginalization of the country’s large tribal population. It would
be naïve to ignore the magnitude of violent revolts by tribal communities
across Indian states that have high deposits of natural resources.
2.
Vulnerable populations
Smallest
climatic alterations, natural disasters or climate-induced epidemic affect the most
populous, poorest and the marginalized first. India is the second most populous
country in the world and is set to overtake China in 2030 (whose emissions are
likely to peak in the same year). Air pollution causes 8 million deaths every
year in India. This is about 30% of the total deaths globally due to air
pollution, according to World Health Organization’s report on Health and
Environment released in May 2015. Delhi, the world’s most polluted city,
recorded a whopping 300 percent rise in respiratory illness cases between
2007-2008 and 2013-2014. India reported about 2000 heat-related deaths in the
summer of 2015. India's Minister of Science and Technology and Earth Sciences
blamed the heat deaths squarely on climate change. Under 4°C warming, the west
coast and southern India are projected to shift to new, high-temperature
climatic regimes with significant impacts on agriculture. In 1987 and
2002-2003, droughts affected more than half of India’s crop area and led to a
huge fall in crop production. Even without climate change, 15% of India’s
groundwater resources are overexploited.
3.
Rising mean sea level and India’s long coastline
India’s
7,517 kilometer long coastline is highly vulnerable to climatic changes. The
mean sea levels in South Asia are constantly rising. This is adversely affecting
the coastal marine and plant lives. This will also immensely impact millions
who are dependent on sea for a living. India’s financial nerve Mumbai has the
world’s largest population exposed to coastal flooding, with large parts of the
city built on reclaimed land, below the high-tide mark. The city received the
highest ever single-day rainfall of 994 mm and subsequent flooding in 2005
which claimed over 1000 lives.
Despite
its intense emission levels, US and China will be in an advantageous position at
Paris. The two countries signed a historic agreement to reduce emissions in
November 2014. While emissions from the US are poised to decline gradually over
the next decade as a natural consequence of growth, technological advancements
and addition of renewable capacities; China has shown remarkable efforts in
mitigating its carbon emissions. China is the largest carbon emitter and has second
largest per capita emission globally. It is the largest importer of fossil
fuels, including coal, and raw materials like iron ore and cement that are
essential for what the world calls ‘development’. Chinese developmental efforts
have borne fruit and millions have broken free from the clutch of poverty after
decades of despair. This has however, come at an enormous ecological cost to
the planet. China, which played a rather negative role at the failed Copenhagen
Climate Summit in 2009, has surprised many by this announcement but the largest
polluter seems to have realized its responsibility of cutting down the black
smoke. It has added an average of 15 GW renewable capacity annually in the last
three years and will continue to expand its green energy sector at a faster rate.
India is at a peculiar juncture
in time when it has to grow as well as grow in a sustainable way. In India coal is used to power more than half of the country’s electricity
generation. In 2010, India introduced a nationwide carbon tax of Rs 50 per
metric ton on coal and today it stands at Rs 200 per metric ton. While a tax on carbon is the most direct method
to systematically approach the greenhouse gas emission cuts, a small tax will
not amount to any substantial reduction in emissions. The share of renewables in India’s energy mix is
less than 9 percent. The only way forward is to improve renewable
energy capacity addition.
It
is therefore all the more in India’s strategic, ecological and economic
interest to envision a future which is sustainable.
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